Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + L?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$7.36

Combined PnL

-$97.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$7.36

Total Shares2,468

Combined PnL-$97.13

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

174h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$48.57	$4.09	-$46.82	80% 4471-1139 (5610)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.93	-$14.56	55% 25586-21235 (46821)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.13	$0.54	-$8.49	47% 47634-54192 (101826)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$3.51	$0.43	-$6.76	55% 42186-34103 (76289)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.56	$0.34	-$5.3	23% 2596-8901 (11497)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.44	$0.27	-$2.44	15% 5007-29404 (34411)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.38	$0.25	-$3.86	22% 1869-6661 (8530)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.53	$0.2	-$3.14	16% 1414-7633 (9047)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.17	$0.19	-$3.02	25% 692-2068 (2760)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$1.18	17% 246-1180 (1426)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.53	$0.04	-$0.52	31% 2584-5634 (8218)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.15	37% 334-558 (892)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.89	$0.01	-$0.88	45% 7293-8812 (16105)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.57

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$46.82

Record

80%

4471-1139 (5610)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$14.56

Record

55%

25586-21235 (46821)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$8.49

Record

47%

47634-54192 (101826)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$6.76

Record

55%

42186-34103 (76289)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$5.3

Record

23%

2596-8901 (11497)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$2.44

Record

15%

5007-29404 (34411)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.86

Record

22%

1869-6661 (8530)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3.14

Record

16%

1414-7633 (9047)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$3.02

Record

25%

692-2068 (2760)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.18

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.52

Record

31%

2584-5634 (8218)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

334-558 (892)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.88

Record

45%

7293-8812 (16105)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

174h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.