Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$1.57
-$34.95
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
138h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.48 | $0.76 | -$2.47 | 15% 4979-29159 (34138) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $28.05 | $0.45 | -$27.6 | 80% 4375-1094 (5469) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.73 | $0.21 | -$1.42 | 55% 42135-34047 (76182) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.53 | $0.08 | -$0.52 | 32% 2581-5602 (8183) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $0.22 | $0.03 | -$0.19 | 25% 682-2042 (2724) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $1.43 | $0.02 | -$1.41 | 37% 16935-29295 (46230) |
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $1.19 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 17% 245-1179 (1424) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $0.15 | $0 | -$0.15 | 37% 330-554 (884) |
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$2.47
Record
15%
4979-29159 (34138)
Invested
$28.05
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$27.6
Record
80%
4375-1094 (5469)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$1.42
Record
55%
42135-34047 (76182)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.52
Record
32%
2581-5602 (8183)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.19
Record
25%
682-2042 (2724)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.41
Record
37%
16935-29295 (46230)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
17%
245-1179 (1424)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
330-554 (884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.