Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $439 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$438.74

Combined PnL

$13.21

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 88.5¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$427.95

Total Shares458

Combined PnL+$117.83

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.67

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$104.62

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S	Noavg 81.5¢	$535.35	$185.05	-$3.48	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 40.3¢	$94.75	$108.08	+$106.24	49% 9352-9925 (19277)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$64.48	$77.41	+$12.94	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
Lucerys	Noavg 86.8¢	$177.42	$48.51	+$1.23	75% 13414-4377 (17791)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8	$8.9	+$0.9	35% 4427-8266 (12693)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$353.29	$8.66	-$103.13	17% 1307-6166 (7473)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.44	$0.75	-$0.69	77% 12627-3871 (16498)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.8	$0.65	-$0.15	58% 21129-15368 (36497)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.8	$0.48	-$0.6	51% 152-146 (298)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$0.18	$0.13	-$0.05	73% 3097-1126 (4223)

2B9S

Invested

$535.35

Value

$185.05

PnL

-$3.48

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

smallreceipt

Invested

$94.75

Value

$108.08

PnL

+$106.24

Record

49%

9352-9925 (19277)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$64.48

Value

$77.41

PnL

+$12.94

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

Lucerys

Invested

$177.42

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$1.23

Record

75%

13414-4377 (17791)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

35%

4427-8266 (12693)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$353.29

Value

$8.66

PnL

-$103.13

Record

17%

1307-6166 (7473)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.69

Record

77%

12627-3871 (16498)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

152-146 (298)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.05

Record

73%

3097-1126 (4223)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.