Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$32.11

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 88.5¢

-5% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,076

Combined PnL-$32.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.24

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 91.4¢	$403.6	$400	-$3.51	17% 402-1972 (2374)
GO god83743894	Noavg 93.9¢	$195.31	$186.37	-$8.94	49% 9048-9543 (18591)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$98.9	$96.22	-$2.68	63% 12954-7737 (20691)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$53.79	$51.07	-$2.72	50% 7813-7864 (15677)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$48.78	$45.79	-$3	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$41.56	$37.63	-$3.93	61% 13866-8714 (22580)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$37.88	$35.84	-$2.04	33% 3061-6298 (9359)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$37.34	$35.78	-$1.56	55% 25961-21246 (47207)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$27.45	$25.96	-$1.49	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
VA vamosgaming<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$22.85	$22.4	-$0.45	25% 228-684 (912)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 85¢	$19.34	$20.38	+$1.05	46% 5501-6473 (11974)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$16.05	$15.23	-$0.82	73% 11084-4092 (15176)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$11.14	$10.53	-$0.61	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$10.94	$10.35	-$0.59	60% 7180-4743 (11923)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$9.59	$8.96	-$0.63	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$6.3	$6.24	-$0.06	18% 4056-19002 (23058)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$3.07	$2.91	-$0.16	38% 187-299 (486)

Istaroth

Invested

$403.6

Value

$400

PnL

-$3.51

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

god83743894

Invested

$195.31

Value

$186.37

PnL

-$8.94

Record

49%

9048-9543 (18591)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$98.9

Value

$96.22

PnL

-$2.68

Record

63%

12954-7737 (20691)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$53.79

Value

$51.07

PnL

-$2.72

Record

50%

7813-7864 (15677)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$48.78

Value

$45.79

PnL

-$3

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$41.56

Value

$37.63

PnL

-$3.93

Record

61%

13866-8714 (22580)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$37.88

Value

$35.84

PnL

-$2.04

Record

33%

3061-6298 (9359)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$37.34

Value

$35.78

PnL

-$1.56

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$25.96

PnL

-$1.49

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

vamosgaming<$100

Invested

$22.85

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$0.45

Record

25%

228-684 (912)

korda77<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$1.05

Record

46%

5501-6473 (11974)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$0.82

Record

73%

11084-4092 (15176)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$11.14

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$0.61

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$0.59

Record

60%

7180-4743 (11923)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.59

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$0.63

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0.06

Record

18%

4056-19002 (23058)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$3.07

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

187-299 (486)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.