Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$106.38
61.8¢ → 64¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hannah-Montana | Noavg 61.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$102.04 | 68% 204-97 (301) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $368.86 | $360.46 | -$5.19 | 26% 281-795 (1076) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.1¢ | $242.03 | $228.89 | -$13.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $123.56 | $131.57 | +$7.95 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $49.13 | $38.23 | +$6.95 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $40.73 | $38.1 | -$2.63 | 18% 3782-17080 (20862) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $0.62 | $0.64 | +$0.02 | 50% 391-394 (785) |
Hannah-MontanaInvested
$1,061.44
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$102.04
Record
68%
204-97 (301)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$368.86
Value
$360.46
PnL
-$5.19
Record
26%
281-795 (1076)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.13
Value
$38.23
PnL
+$6.95
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
2B9S<$100Invested
$40.73
Value
$38.1
PnL
-$2.63
Record
18%
3782-17080 (20862)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
391-394 (785)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.