Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 25¢ · $522 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$521.73
$4.67
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 78.6¢ | $606.62 | $386.52 | -$18.56 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 78.6¢ | $303.78 | $284.09 | -$28.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 23.9¢ | $92.49 | $102.43 | +$9.77 | |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $35.29 | $48.24 | +$12.94 | 56% 255-197 (452) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 79.7¢ | $55.57 | $45.65 | -$9.93 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.5¢ | $28.12 | $26.98 | -$1.14 | 36% 2026-3619 (5645) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.9¢ | $8.95 | $10.25 | +$1.3 | 76% 517-161 (678) |
 Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $2.6 | $4.1 | +$1.5 | 68% 203-97 (300) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$606.62
Value
$386.52
PnL
-$18.56
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.29
Value
$48.24
PnL
+$12.94
Record
56%
255-197 (452)
Invested
$55.57
Value
$45.65
PnL
-$9.93
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$26.98
PnL
-$1.14
Record
36%
2026-3619 (5645)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$1.3
Record
76%
517-161 (678)
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$1.5
Record
68%
203-97 (300)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.