Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $537 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$536.82

Combined PnL

$0.38

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$526.55

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$4.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.27

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$4.34

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.4¢	$144.01	$146.08	+$2.08	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
balthazar	Noavg 97.5¢	$101.21	$101.53	+$0.32	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$94.19	$94.88	+$0.68	27% 104-283 (387)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$58.11	$58.68	+$0.57	17% 76-374 (450)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$38.96	$39.12	+$0.16	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.22	$29.34	+$0.12	27% 936-2514 (3450)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$29.34	+$0	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$26.79	$27.58	+$0.79	17% 66-330 (396)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$10.52	$6.76	-$3.76	—
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$6.84	$3.51	-$0.58	53% 40-36 (76)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$144.01

Value

$146.08

PnL

+$2.08

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

balthazar

Invested

$101.21

Value

$101.53

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$94.19

Value

$94.88

PnL

+$0.68

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$58.11

Value

$58.68

PnL

+$0.57

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.96

Value

$39.12

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$0.12

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$26.79

Value

$27.58

PnL

+$0.79

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

Warren-BuffettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.52

Value

$6.76

PnL

-$3.76

Record

—

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.