Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $358 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$357.82
$0.21
98.7¢ → 98.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
232h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.5¢ | $148.7 | $147.58 | -$1.12 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.75 | $59.28 | -$0.47 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $57.7 | $57.5 | -$0.2 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $33.46 | $34.18 | +$0.73 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.01 | $29.64 | +$0.63 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $29.01 | $29.64 | +$0.63 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
Invested
$148.7
Value
$147.58
PnL
-$1.12
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$59.75
Value
$59.28
PnL
-$0.47
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$57.7
Value
$57.5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$33.46
Value
$34.18
PnL
+$0.73
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$29.01
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0.63
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$29.01
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0.63
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.