Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $515 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$514.72
-$11.36
97.7¢ → 95.6¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Late
175h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 98.1¢ | $146.55 | $142.8 | -$3.75 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
 balthazar | Noavg 97.5¢ | $101.23 | $99.26 | -$1.97 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $87.96 | $86.04 | -$1.92 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $65.33 | $64.06 | -$1.27 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $58.26 | $57.36 | -$0.9 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $39 | $38.24 | -$0.76 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $27.75 | $26.96 | -$0.79 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$146.55
Value
$142.8
PnL
-$3.75
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
balthazarInvested
$101.23
Value
$99.26
PnL
-$1.97
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$87.96
Value
$86.04
PnL
-$1.92
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$65.33
Value
$64.06
PnL
-$1.27
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$58.26
Value
$57.36
PnL
-$0.9
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$39
Value
$38.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$27.75
Value
$26.96
PnL
-$0.79
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.