Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $533 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$533.03
$1.79
98.7¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Late
203h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 98.8¢ | $147.64 | $147.88 | +$0.25 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $125.1 | $125.74 | +$0.64 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.5¢ | $102.28 | $102.8 | +$0.52 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $57.73 | $57.62 | -$0.11 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $39.4 | $39.6 | +$0.2 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $29.55 | $29.7 | +$0.15 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $29.55 | $29.7 | +$0.15 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
Invested
$147.64
Value
$147.88
PnL
+$0.25
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$125.1
Value
$125.74
PnL
+$0.64
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
balthazarInvested
$102.28
Value
$102.8
PnL
+$0.52
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$57.73
Value
$57.62
PnL
-$0.11
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$39.4
Value
$39.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$29.55
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.15
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.55
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.15
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.