Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Kazakhstan by December 31, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $483 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$482.99
$0.78
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Late
174h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $149.18 | $149.22 | +$0.04 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $88.43 | $88.8 | +$0.37 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $87.96 | $88.11 | +$0.15 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $66.88 | $66.94 | +$0.07 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.97 | +$0.15 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
Invested
$149.18
Value
$149.22
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
balthazar<$100Invested
$88.43
Value
$88.8
PnL
+$0.37
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$87.96
Value
$88.11
PnL
+$0.15
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$66.88
Value
$66.94
PnL
+$0.07
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.15
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.