Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Italy by December 31, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $509 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$508.69
$1.81
99.4¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Late
205h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.4¢ | $148.44 | $148.92 | +$0.48 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.3¢ | $103.11 | $103.53 | +$0.42 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $96.33 | $96.72 | +$0.39 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $59.58 | $59.82 | +$0.24 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $39.72 | $39.88 | +$0.16 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.91 | +$0.12 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | +$0 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
Invested
$148.44
Value
$148.92
PnL
+$0.48
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
balthazarInvested
$103.11
Value
$103.53
PnL
+$0.42
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$96.33
Value
$96.72
PnL
+$0.39
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$59.58
Value
$59.82
PnL
+$0.24
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$39.72
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.12
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.