Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Iran by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $466 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$466.08
$0.33
99.4¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.4¢ | $148.54 | $148.62 | +$0.08 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $126.31 | $126.37 | +$0.06 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $103.23 | $103.32 | +$0.09 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $57.91 | $57.91 | +$0 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.85 | +$0.09 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$148.54
Value
$148.62
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$126.31
Value
$126.37
PnL
+$0.06
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
balthazarInvested
$103.23
Value
$103.32
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$57.91
Value
$57.91
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.09
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.