Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Egypt by December 31, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $537 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$537.37

Combined PnL

$0.96

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$537.34

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$0.96

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.01

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.6¢	$186.28	$186.64	+$0.35	26% 860-2483 (3343)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.7¢	$148.93	$149.07	+$0.14	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$103.32	$103.63	+$0.31	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.8	$39.92	+$0.12	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.94	+$0.03	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$28.14	$28.14	+$0	17% 66-330 (396)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.03	+$0.01	54% 562-474 (1036)

graynotebook19

Invested

$186.28

Value

$186.64

PnL

+$0.35

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$148.93

Value

$149.07

PnL

+$0.14

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

balthazar

Invested

$103.32

Value

$103.63

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.8

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.14

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.