Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in another country by December 31, 2026?
2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 98¢ · $324 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 18%
$324.14
-$91.18
99.6¢ → 98¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.6¢ | $154.39 | $148.88 | -$5.51 | 49% 8980-9510 (18490) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $143.35 | $95.69 | -$47.66 | 57% 866-665 (1531) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.67 | $72.09 | -$2.59 | 47% 8498-9698 (18196) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $5.24 | $3.9 | -$1.34 | 18% 4430-20777 (25207) |
 LucerysCTR | Yes | $138.2 | $1.44 | -$25.79 | 75% 13065-4252 (17317) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.78 | $0.78 | -$2.65 | 27% 549-1481 (2030) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.54 | $0.54 | -$1.84 | 30% 2495-5947 (8442) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $1.7 | $0.39 | -$1.31 | 44% 2233-2896 (5129) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $46.23 | $0.26 | -$2.55 | 31% 2678-6002 (8680) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.16 | $0.16 | -$0.36 | 42% 3191-4365 (7556) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.1 | $0.02 | +$0.43 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
Invested
$154.39
Value
$148.88
PnL
-$5.51
Record
49%
8980-9510 (18490)
paddaaCTRInvested
$143.35
Value
$95.69
PnL
-$47.66
Record
57%
866-665 (1531)
Invested
$74.67
Value
$72.09
PnL
-$2.59
Record
47%
8498-9698 (18196)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.24
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$1.34
Record
18%
4430-20777 (25207)
LucerysCTRInvested
$138.2
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$25.79
Record
75%
13065-4252 (17317)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$2.65
Record
27%
549-1481 (2030)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1.84
Record
30%
2495-5947 (8442)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$1.31
Record
44%
2233-2896 (5129)
Invested
$46.23
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$2.55
Record
31%
2678-6002 (8680)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.36
Record
42%
3191-4365 (7556)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0.43
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.