Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 15¢ · $190 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$189.73
-$21.9
18.9¢ → 15¢
-20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $166.78 | $133.43 | -$33.35 | 66% 1105-564 (1669) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $43.88 | $55.55 | +$11.67 | 57% 3046-2293 (5339) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.99 | $0.74 | -$0.22 | 40% 700-1047 (1747) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.