Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.5K
-$496.39
67.9¢ → 56.5¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteaboba | Noavg 67.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$308.05 | 67% 33-16 (49) |
 JustADonk | Noavg 68¢ | $758.48 | $629.98 | -$128.5 | 55% 873-719 (1592) |
AB ABC12345654321 | No | $367.86 | $367.86 | -$59.83 | 50% 1639-1629 (3268) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.