Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New Orleans Saints make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 16¢ · $120 held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$119.7
-$37.28
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $66.8 | $65.6 | -$17.2 | 41% 1959-2766 (4725) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yes | $48.91 | $48.91 | -$17.55 | 50% 1653-1638 (3291) |
 JustADonkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $6.85 | $5.2 | -$2.54 | 55% 890-732 (1622) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.