Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 5.6¢ · $875 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$875.46
$517.31
3¢ → 5.6¢
+85% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
609h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $183.64 | $382.19 | +$198.55 | 42% 1076-1459 (2535) |
RO roldyCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $111.63 | $216.45 | +$104.82 | 55% 1407-1171 (2578) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $40.36 | $191.71 | +$151.35 | 46% 372-430 (802) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $11.77 | $61.02 | +$49.25 | 41% 1953-2759 (4712) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $10.75 | $24.1 | +$13.35 | 45% 1821-2263 (4084) |
LiquidatedDegenCTRInvested
$183.64
Value
$382.19
PnL
+$198.55
Record
42%
1076-1459 (2535)
Invested
$111.63
Value
$216.45
PnL
+$104.82
Record
55%
1407-1171 (2578)
Invested
$40.36
Value
$191.71
PnL
+$151.35
Record
46%
372-430 (802)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$11.77
Value
$61.02
PnL
+$49.25
Record
41%
1953-2759 (4712)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$24.1
PnL
+$13.35
Record
45%
1821-2263 (4084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.