Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.5K
$168.66
87.2¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$161.2 | 63% 189-111 (300) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $4.32 | $11.32 | -$3.07 | 23% 1798-6043 (7841) |
 Nadmi<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $0.46 | $7.78 | +$7.32 | 47% 2082-2393 (4475) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $1.26 | $4.47 | +$3.21 | 65% 621-338 (959) |
Invested
$1,353.42
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$161.2
Record
63%
189-111 (300)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$11.32
PnL
-$3.07
Record
23%
1798-6043 (7841)
Nadmi<$100Invested
$0.46
Value
$7.78
PnL
+$7.32
Record
47%
2082-2393 (4475)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$4.47
PnL
+$3.21
Record
65%
621-338 (959)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.