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Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Nov 8
SIGNAL
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes98%
No2%
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance98.6%
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1.41
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
101.4
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xe83b489f...2113a7
Slug
will-the-national-party-win-40-44-seats-in-the-new-zealand-house-of-representatives-in-the-2026-new-zealand-legislative-election