Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 4.6¢ · $539 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$538.51
$101.59
3.7¢ → 4.6¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
724h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA RaisuuCTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $276.66 | $265.62 | -$11.04 | — 7-3 (10) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $136.48 | $232.53 | +$96.05 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $11.66 | $20.38 | +$8.72 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $10.53 | $18.4 | +$7.87 | 45% 1907-2353 (4260) |
 UbuntuTrading<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $1.61 | $1.58 | -$0.02 | 57% 3069-2357 (5426) |
Invested
$276.66
Value
$265.62
PnL
-$11.04
Record
—
7-3 (10)
Invested
$136.48
Value
$232.53
PnL
+$96.05
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
Invested
$11.66
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$8.72
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$18.4
PnL
+$7.87
Record
45%
1907-2353 (4260)
UbuntuTrading<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
3069-2357 (5426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.