Will The MongolZ Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.48

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 97.8¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,160

Combined PnL-$10.48

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 98.6¢	$362.97	$359.84	-$3.13	50% 4483-4431 (8914)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.7¢	$264.59	$262.17	-$2.43	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.8¢	$148.2	$146.63	-$1.57	10% 25-236 (261)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 98.6¢	$145.8	$144.54	-$1.26	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$88.74	$87.98	-$0.76	4% 15-322 (337)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$49.4	$48.88	-$0.52	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$49.3	$48.88	-$0.42	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.64	$29.33	-$0.31	— 0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.73	$5.67	-$0.06	35% 2865-5318 (8183)

balthazar

Invested

$362.97

Value

$359.84

PnL

-$3.13

Record

50%

4483-4431 (8914)

cigarettes

Invested

$264.59

Value

$262.17

PnL

-$2.43

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

quietparcel

Invested

$148.2

Value

$146.63

PnL

-$1.57

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

kaxel78

Invested

$145.8

Value

$144.54

PnL

-$1.26

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$88.74

Value

$87.98

PnL

-$0.76

Record

15-322 (337)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$49.4

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$0.52

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.3

Value

$48.88

PnL

-$0.42

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$0.31

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$0.06

Record

35%

2865-5318 (8183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.