Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 46¢ · $695 held · ends Nov 4

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$694.53

Combined PnL

$124.51

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 45.5¢

-24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$357.47

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$217.89

Yes5 traders

Total Value$337.05

Total Shares664

Combined PnL-$93.38

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 17¢	$58.15	$252.64	+$194.49	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 60.9¢	$146.06	$110	-$36.06	50% 1249-1274 (2523)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 50.6¢	$175.94	$103.59	+$22.96	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
macrosteaksCTR	Yesavg 57.2¢	$110.48	$92	-$18.48	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 59.2¢	$100	$84.5	-$21.42	57% 1117-848 (1965)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$25.2	$40	-$16.4	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$26.84	$10.55	-$1.02	16% 427-2305 (2732)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 36¢	$0.81	$1.25	+$0.44	69% 1027-455 (1482)

balthazar

Invested

$58.15

Value

$252.64

PnL

+$194.49

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$146.06

Value

$110

PnL

-$36.06

Record

50%

1249-1274 (2523)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$175.94

Value

$103.59

PnL

+$22.96

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

macrosteaksCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.48

Value

$92

PnL

-$18.48

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$21.42

Record

57%

1117-848 (1965)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.2

Value

$40

PnL

-$16.4

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.84

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$1.02

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$0.81

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.44

Record

69%

1027-455 (1482)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.5%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$110.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

210.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.