Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Miami Heat make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $211 held
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$211.03
$14.48
36.8¢ → 38¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $123.39 | $114.43 | -$8.95 | 41% 1997-2832 (4829) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $51.92 | $77.6 | +$25.68 | 52% 1154-1065 (2219) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $19.5 | $19 | -$2.25 | 23% 176-599 (775) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.