Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 36¢ · $414 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$413.75
$73.79
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $298.37 | $379.86 | +$81.49 | — 0-5 (5) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $19.35 | -$1.05 | 27% 928-2514 (3442) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $12.9 | -$0.9 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $59.04 | $1.29 | -$5.75 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.