Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$503.42
$2
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $655.58 | $462.42 | -$89.17 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.2¢ | $371.14 | $330.88 | -$77.68 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $140.25 | $131.54 | -$11.49 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $39 | $41 | +$2 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.