Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $515,000 and $519,000 on December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $66 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$66.03
-$1.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
63h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $51 | $56.4 | +$8.91 | 53% 23554-20762 (44316) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $9.4 | -$0.3 | 31% 4467-9741 (14208) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $3.33 | $0.11 | -$7.59 | 23% 1791-6025 (7816) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.03 | $0.06 | -$0.93 | 16% 383-1960 (2343) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$1.63 | 27% 2525-6883 (9408) |
Invested
$51
Value
$56.4
PnL
+$8.91
Record
53%
23554-20762 (44316)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
31%
4467-9741 (14208)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$7.59
Record
23%
1791-6025 (7816)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.93
Record
16%
383-1960 (2343)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.63
Record
27%
2525-6883 (9408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.