Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $511,000 and $515,000 on December 31?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $278 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$278.13

Combined PnL

$5.23

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 99.9¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$273.87

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$9.7

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.69

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$4.48

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 94.9¢	$130.33	$86.12	-$2.14	14% 508-3080 (3588)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$62.53	$57.34	-$5.19	61% 16040-10339 (26379)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$44.91	$41.04	+$20.74	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.94	$30.03	+$0.08	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$76.29	$28.29	-$2.88	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$27.36	-$2.53	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 56¢	$3.69	$3.68	+$1.62	39% 3153-4977 (8130)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.49	$3.61	+$3.12	48% 1336-1435 (2771)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$7.67	$0.08	-$7.59	25% 1751-5368 (7119)

Istaroth

Invested

$130.33

Value

$86.12

PnL

-$2.14

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$62.53

Value

$57.34

PnL

-$5.19

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$44.91

Value

$41.04

PnL

+$20.74

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$30.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$76.29

Value

$28.29

PnL

-$2.88

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$27.36

PnL

-$2.53

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$1.62

Record

39%

3153-4977 (8130)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$3.12

Record

48%

1336-1435 (2771)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.59

Record

25%

1751-5368 (7119)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.