Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $313,000 and $318,000 on December 31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 41¢ · $538 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$538.27
$41.02
30.6¢ → 40.5¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $156.42 | $201.92 | +$45.5 | 44% 389-487 (876) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $616.5 | $198 | -$132.05 | 16% 416-2180 (2596) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.1¢ | $138.12 | $120 | -$127.03 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $75.39 | $78 | -$5.01 | |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $79.14 | $47.09 | +$11.15 | 42% 5362-7390 (12752) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $75.23 | $34.6 | -$11.06 | 79% 10898-2965 (13863) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $25.9 | $24 | -$1.9 | 48% 9180-9999 (19179) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $61 | $12.56 | -$0.78 | 17% 260-1309 (1569) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $12 | +$0.2 | 60% 10619-7212 (17831) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $59.2 | $8.1 | -$2.1 | 25% 1615-4803 (6418) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$156.42
Value
$201.92
PnL
+$45.5
Record
44%
389-487 (876)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$616.5
Value
$198
PnL
-$132.05
Record
16%
416-2180 (2596)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.14
Value
$47.09
PnL
+$11.15
Record
42%
5362-7390 (12752)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$75.23
Value
$34.6
PnL
-$11.06
Record
79%
10898-2965 (13863)
Invested
$25.9
Value
$24
PnL
-$1.9
Record
48%
9180-9999 (19179)
Invested
$61
Value
$12.56
PnL
-$0.78
Record
17%
260-1309 (1569)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.2
Record
60%
10619-7212 (17831)
Invested
$59.2
Value
$8.1
PnL
-$2.1
Record
25%
1615-4803 (6418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.