Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$2.0K
$445.75
59.5¢ → 76.8¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$525.76 | 44% 389-487 (876) |
SP SPLPBCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $104 | $60.58 | -$43.42 | 24% 684-2132 (2816) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.9¢ | $87.65 | $58.5 | -$29.15 | 42% 5370-7408 (12778) |
12 123987456<$100 | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $10.65 | $15.34 | +$4.69 | 43% 2055-2685 (4740) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $21.47 | $12.22 | -$9.26 | 17% 1059-5142 (6201) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.5¢ | $11.75 | $6.83 | -$5 | 16% 262-1337 (1599) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.79 | $3.91 | +$2.12 | 53% 7652-6774 (14426) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$1,819.82
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$525.76
Record
44%
389-487 (876)
Invested
$104
Value
$60.58
PnL
-$43.42
Record
24%
684-2132 (2816)
Invested
$87.65
Value
$58.5
PnL
-$29.15
Record
42%
5370-7408 (12778)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$15.34
PnL
+$4.69
Record
43%
2055-2685 (4740)
Invested
$21.47
Value
$12.22
PnL
-$9.26
Record
17%
1059-5142 (6201)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$6.83
PnL
-$5
Record
16%
262-1337 (1599)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$2.12
Record
53%
7652-6774 (14426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.