Will the median home value in NYC be between $484,000 and $497,000 on December 31?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $873 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$873.08

Combined PnL

-$14.86

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 98.1¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$870.68

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$3.12

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.4

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$11.75

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 86.4¢	$825.51	$760.14	-$12	14% 503-3047 (3550)
TR troim<$100	Noavg 86¢	$60.2	$43.16	+$8.73	37% 411-713 (1124)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$46.48	$42.77	-$3.7	18% 4421-20724 (25145)
extractive-manatee<$100	Noavg 84¢	$46.86	$24.61	+$3.85	34% 601-1158 (1759)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$3.29	$0.99	-$2.28	30% 2485-5916 (8401)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yes	$67.76	$0.91	-$4.16	17% 1282-6085 (7367)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$105.75	$0.22	-$4.21	27% 532-1439 (1971)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.4	$0.18	-$0.31	61% 14976-9440 (24416)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.4	$0.05	-$0.35	61% 16011-10320 (26331)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$0.49	$0.04	-$0.45	18% 357-1657 (2014)

Istaroth

Invested

$825.51

Value

$760.14

PnL

-$12

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

troim<$100

Invested

$60.2

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$8.73

Record

37%

411-713 (1124)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$46.48

Value

$42.77

PnL

-$3.7

Record

18%

4421-20724 (25145)

extractive-manatee<$100

Invested

$46.86

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$3.85

Record

34%

601-1158 (1759)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$2.28

Record

30%

2485-5916 (8401)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.76

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$4.16

Record

17%

1282-6085 (7367)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.75

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$4.21

Record

27%

532-1439 (1971)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.31

Record

61%

14976-9440 (24416)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

61%

16011-10320 (26331)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.45

Record

18%

357-1657 (2014)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.