Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the median home value in NYC be between $471,000 and $484,000 on December 31?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $214 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$214.13

Combined PnL

-$9.33

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$197.59

Total Shares208

Combined PnL+$7.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$16.54

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$16.8

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85¢	$72.56	$76.91	+$4.35	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$74.77	$64.25	-$3.7	14% 513-3102 (3615)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 82¢	$32.8	$37.62	+$4.82	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.8	$18.81	+$2.01	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$30	$15.53	-$10.96	34% 602-1160 (1762)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$2.86	$0.28	-$2.58	30% 2495-5947 (8442)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.4	$0.24	-$0.34	61% 15009-9460 (24469)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$106.55	$0.23	-$2.13	27% 549-1481 (2030)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$0.4	$0.21	-$0.44	18% 362-1672 (2034)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.4	$0.06	-$0.34	61% 16044-10354 (26398)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$72.56

Value

$76.91

PnL

+$4.35

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$74.77

Value

$64.25

PnL

-$3.7

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$37.62

PnL

+$4.82

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$2.01

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

extractive-manateeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$15.53

PnL

-$10.96

Record

34%

602-1160 (1762)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$2.58

Record

30%

2495-5947 (8442)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.34

Record

61%

15009-9460 (24469)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.55

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$2.13

Record

27%

549-1481 (2030)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.44

Record

18%

362-1672 (2034)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.34

Record

61%

16044-10354 (26398)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4045.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

4145.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.