Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the median home value in NYC be between $471,000 and $484,000 on December 31?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $114 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$113.87

Combined PnL

-$10.14

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$95.72

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$6.36

Yes5 traders

Total Value$18.15

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$16.5

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85¢	$72.56	$76.91	+$4.35	17% 4489-21974 (26463)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.8	$18.81	+$2.01	31% 4455-9732 (14187)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$30	$15.53	-$10.96	34% 660-1265 (1925)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$2.04	$1.19	-$2.6	27% 2507-6862 (9369)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$1.1	$0.98	-$2.15	26% 562-1624 (2186)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.24	$0.24	-$0.35	43% 10596-14072 (24668)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$0.39	$0.21	-$0.44	16% 373-1948 (2321)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$72.56

Value

$76.91

PnL

+$4.35

Record

17%

4489-21974 (26463)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$2.01

Record

31%

4455-9732 (14187)

extractive-manateeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$15.53

PnL

-$10.96

Record

34%

660-1265 (1925)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$2.6

Record

27%

2507-6862 (9369)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$2.15

Record

26%

562-1624 (2186)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.35

Record

43%

10596-14072 (24668)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.44

Record

16%

373-1948 (2321)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4045.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

4145.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.