Will the median home value in NYC be between $458,000 and $471,000 on December 31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 89¢ · $138 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$138.26
-$12.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 87¢ | $105.55 | $109.2 | +$3.65 | 17% 4489-21974 (26463) |
TR troimCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $43.53 | $27.38 | -$16.15 | 36% 411-716 (1127) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $1.1 | $1.24 | +$0.09 | 26% 562-1624 (2186) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.43 | $0.43 | +$0.2 | 43% 10596-14072 (24668) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.