Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the median home value in Miami be between $830,000 and $851,000 on December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 43¢ · $360 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$360.33
-$16.39
42.3¢ → 43.3¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
321h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $117.84 | $138.36 | +$20.52 | 49% 553-581 (1134) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $117.49 | $87.56 | -$23.38 | 42% 2335-3178 (5513) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $83.69 | $71.84 | -$4.13 | 17% 4496-22008 (26504) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.8¢ | $43.08 | $42.03 | -$1.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34¢ | $33.81 | $29.81 | -$3.08 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $66.71 | $54.51 | -$12.2 | 53% 8568-7638 (16206) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $8.39 | $6.5 | -$1.89 | 16% 383-1960 (2343) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 30.5¢ | $0.99 | $1.55 | +$0.56 | 26% 580-1646 (2226) |
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$117.84
Value
$138.36
PnL
+$20.52
Record
49%
553-581 (1134)
Invested
$117.49
Value
$87.56
PnL
-$23.38
Record
42%
2335-3178 (5513)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$83.69
Value
$71.84
PnL
-$4.13
Record
17%
4496-22008 (26504)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.71
Value
$54.51
PnL
-$12.2
Record
53%
8568-7638 (16206)
Invested
$8.39
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$1.89
Record
16%
383-1960 (2343)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.56
Record
26%
580-1646 (2226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.