Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $657 held · ends Jan 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$656.68
$160.67
33.7¢ → 58.5¢
+73% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 30¢ | $0.97 | $418 | +$157.39 | 33% 521-1056 (1577) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $145.88 | $140.01 | -$1.33 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $77.71 | $81.91 | +$3.42 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $63.01 | $58.1 | -$4.75 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $55 | $54.5 | -$0.5 | 56% 15513-12121 (27634) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $29.2 | $32.96 | +$3.76 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $8.3 | -$0.3 | 23% 176-599 (775) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $14 | $2.93 | +$0.32 | 42% 5345-7358 (12703) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$0.97
Value
$418
PnL
+$157.39
Record
33%
521-1056 (1577)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$145.88
Value
$140.01
PnL
-$1.33
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$55
Value
$54.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
15513-12121 (27634)
Invested
$29.2
Value
$32.96
PnL
+$3.76
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
23%
176-599 (775)
Invested
$14
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.32
Record
42%
5345-7358 (12703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.