Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $168 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$167.81

Combined PnL

$20.35

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$101.72

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$1.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$66.08

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$18.76

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 78¢	$73.37	$77.12	+$3.76	43% 2312-3103 (5415)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$15.61	$42.93	+$14.9	49% 552-581 (1133)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 86¢	$27.15	$24.6	-$2.18	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$19.29	$23.15	+$3.86	34% 660-1265 (1925)

123987456<$100

Invested

$73.37

Value

$77.12

PnL

+$3.76

Record

43%

2312-3103 (5415)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.61

Value

$42.93

PnL

+$14.9

Record

49%

552-581 (1133)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.15

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$2.18

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

extractive-manateeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.29

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$3.86

Record

34%

660-1265 (1925)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.