Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?

18 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 86¢ · $900 held · ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Jan 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$899.52

Combined PnL

-$48.73

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 86.1¢

+9% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 20 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$894.65

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL-$45.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.88

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$3.47

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 74.2¢	$431.69	$242.51	-$49.09	18% 381-1768 (2149)
balthazar	Noavg 81.7¢	$130.7	$128.8	-$1.9	61% 21436-13697 (35133)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 77¢	$103.95	$108.68	+$4.73	—
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 78¢	$72.44	$74.78	+$2.34	45% 1915-2355 (4270)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 81¢	$34.39	$34.18	-$0.21	48% 3491-3827 (7318)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 81¢	$34.39	$34.18	-$0.21	—
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 81¢	$34.39	$34.18	-$0.21	—
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 81¢	$34.39	$34.18	-$0.21	—
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 81¢	$34.39	$34.18	-$0.21	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81¢	$32.32	$32.12	-$0.2	—
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 82¢	$24.6	$24.15	-$0.45	—
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$24.15	+$0.75	—
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 81¢	$19.1	$18.98	-$0.12	—
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 81¢	$19.1	$18.98	-$0.12	—
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 81¢	$19.1	$18.98	-$0.12	—
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 83¢	$16.6	$16.1	-$0.5	—
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$11.13	$11.49	+$0.36	—
FO fourcoin15m<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.03	+$0.13	—
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7	$3.9	-$3.1	42% 5293-7253 (12546)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$0.98	-$0.38	53% 6746-5953 (12699)

Istaroth

Invested

$431.69

Value

$242.51

PnL

-$49.09

Record

18%

381-1768 (2149)

balthazar

Invested

$130.7

Value

$128.8

PnL

-$1.9

Record

61%

21436-13697 (35133)

quietparcel

Invested

$103.95

Value

$108.68

PnL

+$4.73

Record

—

123987456<$100

Invested

$72.44

Value

$74.78

PnL

+$2.34

Record

45%

1915-2355 (4270)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

3491-3827 (7318)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

akroll<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

klli27<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.32

Value

$32.12

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$0.45

Record

—

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$24.15

PnL

+$0.75

Record

—

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

zerone777<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$11.13

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.36

Record

—

fourcoin15m<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$3.1

Record

42%

5293-7253 (12546)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

6746-5953 (12699)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 20 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.