Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$1.2K
$393.37
61.4¢ → 6.5¢
-89% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA lava-lava | Noavg 31¢ | $172.05 | $518.93 | +$346.88 | 43% 602-790 (1392) |
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 35.2¢ | $170.15 | $452.41 | +$282.26 | 70% 1188-499 (1687) |
 balthazar | Noavg 30¢ | $15 | $106.5 | +$70.16 | 52% 31055-29024 (60079) |
 G.Hchen<$100 | Noavg 31.4¢ | $15.7 | $46.75 | +$31.05 | 57% 394-302 (696) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR | Yesavg 65¢ | $195 | $19.5 | -$175.5 | 54% 828-710 (1538) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 65¢ | $195 | $19.5 | -$175.5 | 57% 1132-860 (1992) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.8 | $18.7 | +$11.9 | 47% 1359-1503 (2862) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $0.95 | $3.08 | +$2.13 | 51% 314-304 (618) |
Invested
$172.05
Value
$518.93
PnL
+$346.88
Record
43%
602-790 (1392)
bernardbulletinInvested
$170.15
Value
$452.41
PnL
+$282.26
Record
70%
1188-499 (1687)
balthazarInvested
$15
Value
$106.5
PnL
+$70.16
Record
52%
31055-29024 (60079)
G.Hchen<$100Invested
$15.7
Value
$46.75
PnL
+$31.05
Record
57%
394-302 (696)
Invested
$195
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$175.5
Record
54%
828-710 (1538)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$195
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$175.5
Record
57%
1132-860 (1992)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$18.7
PnL
+$11.9
Record
47%
1359-1503 (2862)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$2.13
Record
51%
314-304 (618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.