Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$216.5

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 6.5¢

-89% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,223

Combined PnL+$742.24

Yes4 traders

Total Value$65.83

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL-$525.75

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LA lava-lava	Noavg 31¢	$172.05	$518.93	+$346.88	43% 602-790 (1392)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 35.2¢	$170.15	$452.41	+$282.26	70% 1186-499 (1685)
balthazar	Noavg 30¢	$15	$106.5	+$70.16	52% 31016-29004 (60020)
G.Hchen<$100	Noavg 31.4¢	$15.7	$46.75	+$31.05	57% 393-301 (694)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 53.1¢	$308.83	$23.75	-$176.88	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$195	$19.5	-$175.5	54% 825-710 (1535)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$195	$19.5	-$175.5	57% 1132-860 (1992)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 34¢	$6.8	$18.7	+$11.9	47% 1357-1501 (2858)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$0.95	$3.08	+$2.13	51% 313-304 (617)

lava-lava

Invested

$172.05

Value

$518.93

PnL

+$346.88

Record

43%

602-790 (1392)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$170.15

Value

$452.41

PnL

+$282.26

Record

70%

1186-499 (1685)

balthazar

Invested

$15

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$70.16

Record

52%

31016-29004 (60020)

G.Hchen<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$46.75

PnL

+$31.05

Record

57%

393-301 (694)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$308.83

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$176.88

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

SitsToPeeCTR

Yes

Invested

$195

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$175.5

Record

54%

825-710 (1535)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$195

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$175.5

Record

57%

1132-860 (1992)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$18.7

PnL

+$11.9

Record

47%

1357-1501 (2858)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$2.13

Record

51%

313-304 (617)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1185.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1285.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.