Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $582 held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$581.72
$60.42
75.7¢ → 84.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 77¢ | $229.9 | $252.17 | +$22.27 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
 Relaccsed | Noavg 70¢ | $196 | $236.6 | +$40.6 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
 Rex416<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $87 | $84.5 | -$2.5 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $8.45 | +$0.05 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.