Will the Las Vegas Raiders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$128.39

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 81¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$814.96

Total Shares1,006

Combined PnL+$175.89

Yes4 traders

Total Value$570.62

Total Shares2,202

Combined PnL-$47.49

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 62¢	$510	$666.29	+$156.29	66% 882-453 (1335)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$437.65	$441.99	+$11.76	41% 1997-2832 (4829)
extractive-manatee	Noavg 69¢	$124.24	$144.22	+$19.98	33% 523-1059 (1582)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$171.97	$112.29	-$59.67	50% 1694-1678 (3372)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$5.92	$8.74	+$2.82	43% 467-620 (1087)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$40	$7.6	-$2.4	23% 176-599 (775)
Seutervoinen<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.84	$4.46	-$0.39	85% 313-57 (370)

ndb1

Invested

$510

Value

$666.29

PnL

+$156.29

Record

66%

882-453 (1335)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$437.65

Value

$441.99

PnL

+$11.76

Record

41%

1997-2832 (4829)

extractive-manatee

Invested

$124.24

Value

$144.22

PnL

+$19.98

Record

33%

523-1059 (1582)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$171.97

Value

$112.29

PnL

-$59.67

Record

50%

1694-1678 (3372)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.92

Value

$8.74

PnL

+$2.82

Record

43%

467-620 (1087)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

Seutervoinen<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.39

Record

85%

313-57 (370)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.