Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 14¢ · $497 held · ends Jan 25, 2027

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Mon, Jan 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$496.71

Combined PnL

-$8.69

Smart Money Entry

33.7¢ → 14.5¢

-57% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$368.9

Total Shares461

Combined PnL+$78.85

No2 traders

Total Value$127.82

Total Shares639

Combined PnL-$87.54

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano	Yesavg 62¢	$151.19	$213.39	+$66.05	54% 1415-1224 (2639)
TimeTravelerCTR	Noavg 34.3¢	$213.19	$124.22	-$88.98	41% 2124-3048 (5172)
AU auros2	Yes	$102.35	$102.35	-$0.54	— 4-0 (4)
ND ndb1<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$32.13	$46.32	+$14.19	64% 1050-593 (1643)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$7.7	$6.84	-$0.85	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$2.16	$3.6	+$1.44	40% 6508-9755 (16263)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$151.19

Value

$213.39

PnL

+$66.05

Record

54%

1415-1224 (2639)

TimeTravelerCTR

Invested

$213.19

Value

$124.22

PnL

-$88.98

Record

41%

2124-3048 (5172)

auros2

Yes

Invested

$102.35

Value

$102.35

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

4-0 (4)

ndb1<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.13

Value

$46.32

PnL

+$14.19

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.7

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.44

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.