Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$157.49
$19.5
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100 | Yesavg 84.8¢ | $161.98 | $135.26 | -$22.72 | 43% 132-178 (310) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 84.8¢ | $113.1 | $105.39 | -$3.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.6¢ | $50.99 | $29.87 | -$19.01 | |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2.73 | $22.23 | +$19.5 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.