Will The Invite win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $480 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$479.95

Combined PnL

-$18.51

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$450.42

Total Shares454

Combined PnL+$48.9

Yes4 traders

Total Value$28.74

Total Shares4,284

Combined PnL-$67.41

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.7¢	$566.71	$346.15	-$1.29	53% 23789-20956 (44745)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.6¢	$199.16	$64.55	+$50.2	47% 10377-11838 (22215)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.86	$39.73	-$0.02	37% 3303-5683 (8986)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$25.23	-$62.14	47% 1357-1501 (2858)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$2.25	-$3.31	39% 681-1087 (1768)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0.87	$0.87	-$2.15	22% 43-157 (200)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.21	$0.39	+$0.18	27% 610-1662 (2272)

cigarettes

Invested

$566.71

Value

$346.15

PnL

-$1.29

Record

53%

23789-20956 (44745)

quietparcel

Invested

$199.16

Value

$64.55

PnL

+$50.2

Record

47%

10377-11838 (22215)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$39.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

3303-5683 (8986)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$62.14

Record

47%

1357-1501 (2858)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.31

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$2.15

Record

22%

43-157 (200)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.18

Record

27%

610-1662 (2272)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.