Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 31¢ · $620 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$619.94
-$9.78
41.5¢ → 31¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2 | Yes | $409.02 | $409.02 | +$40.26 | — 4-0 (4) |
 HyperlongCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $171.36 | $126.48 | -$59.16 | 47% 320-366 (686) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $56.02 | $68.57 | +$12.55 | 40% 6517-9785 (16302) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.2¢ | $42.6 | $15.86 | -$3.43 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.