Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 65m?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $452 held · ends Nov 22

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$451.77

Combined PnL

$1.39

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$451.69

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$1.45

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.08

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

512h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99¢	$94.47	$95.03	+$0.56	28% 826-2133 (2959)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$89.39	$89.64	+$0.25	39% 1397-2152 (3549)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$79.43	$79.68	+$0.25	28% 2439-6150 (8589)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$54.69	$54.69	-$0	26% 888-2504 (3392)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$38.02	$38.13	+$0.11	31% 200-440 (640)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.85	$29.88	+$0.03	79% 170-44 (214)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.62	$19.72	+$0.1	— 1-10 (11)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.51	$19.64	+$0.13	50% 4490-4436 (8926)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$13.24	$13.21	-$0.03	30% 184-421 (605)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$12.02	$12.08	+$0.06	36% 516-906 (1422)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.07	$0.04	-$0.03	34% 193-382 (575)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.07	$0.04	-$0.03	37% 183-315 (498)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$94.47

Value

$95.03

PnL

+$0.56

Record

28%

826-2133 (2959)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$89.39

Value

$89.64

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

1397-2152 (3549)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$79.43

Value

$79.68

PnL

+$0.25

Record

28%

2439-6150 (8589)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$54.69

Value

$54.69

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

888-2504 (3392)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$38.02

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

31%

200-440 (640)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$29.85

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

79%

170-44 (214)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

1-10 (11)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.51

Value

$19.64

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

4490-4436 (8926)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

184-421 (605)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.02

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

36%

516-906 (1422)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

34%

193-382 (575)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

183-315 (498)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

512h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.