Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $402 held · ends Nov 22

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$402.08

Combined PnL

-$2.22

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$402.08

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$2.22

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

148h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$94.65	$94.11	-$0.54	26% 888-2504 (3392)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$79.32	$78.91	-$0.4	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$37.19	$37	-$0.2	34% 199-384 (583)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$29.43	$29.59	+$0.16	11% 35-271 (306)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.59	-$0.29	5% 16-322 (338)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.77	$29.59	-$0.18	79% 177-47 (224)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.31	$29.15	-$0.17	28% 827-2133 (2960)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$24.81	$24.57	-$0.24	39% 1397-2152 (3549)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$20.62	$20.36	-$0.25	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$12.09	$12.04	-$0.06	32% 205-443 (648)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$12.05	$12	-$0.04	31% 190-424 (614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.17	$5.16	-$0.01	36% 521-909 (1430)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$94.65

Value

$94.11

PnL

-$0.54

Record

26%

888-2504 (3392)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$79.32

Value

$78.91

PnL

-$0.4

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$37.19

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$29.59

PnL

+$0.16

Record

11%

35-271 (306)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.59

PnL

-$0.29

Record

16-322 (338)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$29.77

Value

$29.59

PnL

-$0.18

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.31

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

827-2133 (2960)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.81

Value

$24.57

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

1397-2152 (3549)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$20.62

Value

$20.36

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$0.06

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

148h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.