Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 73¢ · $964 held · ends Nov 22

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$963.9

Combined PnL

-$129.86

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 73¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$647.64

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$69.58

No9 traders

Total Value$316.25

Total Shares925

Combined PnL-$199.44

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cat-dog	Yesavg 63.1¢	$428.96	$485.16	+$56.2	77% 104-31 (135)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 60.2¢	$134.27	$134	-$0.27	17% 1014-4846 (5860)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$176.04	$126.88	-$49.15	55% 25912-21183 (47095)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 43¢	$307.92	$125.87	-$97.61	17% 393-1939 (2332)
TimeTraveler<$100	Yesavg 37.2¢	$14.84	$28.48	+$13.64	41% 1997-2832 (4829)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$53.95	$18.59	-$35.36	56% 5852-4578 (10430)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$18.25	$13.68	-$4.6	31% 1399-3137 (4536)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$36.1	$11.44	-$24.66	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 17.2¢	$201.59	$11.27	+$18.39	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 26.3¢	$4.78	$5.28	+$0.5	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9	$2.86	-$6.14	50% 9031-9106 (18137)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 90¢	$1.18	$0.37	-$0.8	44% 4014-5074 (9088)

cat-dog

Yes

Invested

$428.96

Value

$485.16

PnL

+$56.2

Record

77%

104-31 (135)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$134.27

Value

$134

PnL

-$0.27

Record

17%

1014-4846 (5860)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$176.04

Value

$126.88

PnL

-$49.15

Record

55%

25912-21183 (47095)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$307.92

Value

$125.87

PnL

-$97.61

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

TimeTraveler<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.84

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$13.64

Record

41%

1997-2832 (4829)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Invested

$53.95

Value

$18.59

PnL

-$35.36

Record

56%

5852-4578 (10430)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$4.6

Record

31%

1399-3137 (4536)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$36.1

Value

$11.44

PnL

-$24.66

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$201.59

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$18.39

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.5

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$6.14

Record

50%

9031-9106 (18137)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.8

Record

44%

4014-5074 (9088)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.