Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.4K
$253.09
54.3¢ → 64.5¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
85h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $794.23 | $944.24 | +$150.02 | 74% 2727-977 (3704) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Yesavg 55.1¢ | $211.17 | $283.22 | +$72.05 | 45% 110-134 (244) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.3¢ | $58.73 | $66.07 | -$1.5 | 36% 2046-3660 (5706) |
10 101456<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $17.41 | $32.34 | +$14.93 | 48% 110-120 (230) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.1¢ | $12.65 | $30.26 | +$17.6 | 42% 137-192 (329) |
viniiInvested
$794.23
Value
$944.24
PnL
+$150.02
Record
74%
2727-977 (3704)
Invested
$211.17
Value
$283.22
PnL
+$72.05
Record
45%
110-134 (244)
Invested
$58.73
Value
$66.07
PnL
-$1.5
Record
36%
2046-3660 (5706)
Invested
$17.41
Value
$32.34
PnL
+$14.93
Record
48%
110-120 (230)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$30.26
PnL
+$17.6
Record
42%
137-192 (329)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.