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Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$142.75
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes71%
No29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 62.3¢ | $145.85 | $142.75 | -$2.48 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.4¢ | $56.27 | $101.35 | +$45.08 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.3¢ | $88.88 | $41.4 | -$47.57 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance72.8%
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$37.35
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
137.4
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xe7f4a190...320856
Slug
will-the-highest-score-achieved-by-a-google-gemini-model-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-be-60-or-higher-20260723192605548